Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-08T13:09:33

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is expected to stay subdued at Moderate to Background with the ongoing CME influence, along with further CME arrivals expected through Day 1-3 (08-10 Nov). However, the Van Allen Belts are likely to be charged due to recent geomagnetic activity, so electron flux could approach High levels if geomagnetic activity decreases between CME arrivals.

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) and is expected to persist at this level unless geomagnetic activity eases and prolonged periods of High flux are observed. MOSWOC REFM does have some indication of an increase in flux levels towards the Active threshold, but is overestimating current fluence levels and is thought to be overdone.