Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-10T00:25:30

GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux is currently moderate, but is expected to become diurnally High again later today. This Moderate to diurnally High flux is expected to continue Day 2 (11 Oct), but the onset of fast winds from CH85/- will bring a drop in flux back to background levels, mostly likely from late Day 2 (11 Oct), perhaps early Day 3 (12 Oct).

The associated 24 hour fluence remains close to the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux) at the start of this period. Fluence is likely to see a relatively flat or slightly increasing trend initially, depending on the extent of diurnally high flux through Days 1 and 2 (10 and 11 Oct), with fluence levels likely to remain close to, or just above, the Active threshold during this time. Geomagnetic activity associated with the fast wind connection to CH85 will bring a more definitive reduction below the Active level later in the forecast period. MOSWOC REFM is currently running noticeably lower than observations, and therefore currently not giving good guidance. However, the overall trend of the fluence being below the Active threshold is accepted.