Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-04T00:48:50

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux has reduced from persistently High levels to become Moderate with periodically High intervals. Although these elevated levels are broadly attributable to previous geomagnetic activity resulting from CH91+ and/or CH93/+, the recent decrease may be as a result of the weak transient that arrived at L1 early on 03 Nov. For the wider event, it appears that electron flux has peaked and a gradual declining trend is expected to continue in the coming days, with periods of Moderate flux becoming more prolonged and likely at diurnal minimum. 

The associated 24hr Fluence has likely peaked, although remains persistently Active (above 1e8 integrated pfu) for now. A declining trend is expected through the period and expected to fall below this threshold by Day 2 (5 Nov). This is supported by MOSWOC REFM and 27-day recurrence, however these are both likely easing the observed flux too soon, despite observed values being below both forecasts at present.