Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-17T00:24:06

GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux has been at diurnally high levels over recent days, with recent HSS effects keeping flux levels up. However, there are several potential CME arrivals over the next few days, which may knock the electron flux down to mostly background levels. The flux is then most likely to stay at background to moderate with possible high peaks through the forecast period. 

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is currently above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, on a slight inclining trend. There is currently low confidence in the CME forecast, and this transfers over to the electron fluence forecast as well, as geomagnetic activity associated with CME influence is likely to reduce the fluence to below Active (1e8 integrated flux). MOSWOC REFM is suggesting that fluence quickly declines below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux) and then remains below. The declining trend indicated by REFM is accepted for later in the forecast period, but initially continued Active fluence is expected.