MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-12T00:18:10
GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux has been High to Moderate. However, the onset of fast winds from CH85/- should gradually bring a drop in flux back to Background or Moderate levels for much of the forecast period.
The associated 24 hour fluence has declined to below the active threshold. MOSWOC REFM is currently running slightly lower than observations but the overall trend is considered good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-10-12T00:18:10 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |