MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-11T00:15:55
GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux is currently High to Moderate. This Moderate to diurnally High flux is expected to continue Day 1 (11 Oct), but the onset of fast winds from CH85/- will bring a drop in flux back to background levels, mostly likely from Day 2 (12 Oct).
The associated 24 hour fluence has been above the Active threshold over the past 24 hours, but has recently declined to just below the Active threshold. Fluence is likely to see a continuing declining trend on day 1 (11 Oct) due to the expected arrival of the HSS from CH85/-. MOSWOC REFM is currently running noticeably lower than observations, and therefore currently not giving good guidance. However, the overall trend of the fluence being below the Active threshold is accepted.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-10-11T00:15:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |