Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-09T00:26:01

GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux has become Moderate to High after a gradual decline from the connection to the fast winds CH83 and CH84. A CME arrival remains possible early on 09 Oct, however this is expected to be a relatively weak affair, with Moderate to High flux continuing. A gradual declining trend is likely through the period, however the potential for the onset of any fast wind from the small central disc coronal hole on days 2-3, followed by a stronger connection to the bulk of CH85/-, is likely to bring a more definitive drop to Background flux.  

The associated 24 hour fluence is on a declining trend after peaking Very Active at the start of 07 Oct, but remains Active at the start of this period. Fluence is likely to see a continued declining trend, perhaps quicker if a stronger CME arrival is observed early on day 1 (09 Oct). Any notable fast wind connection from late day 2  (10 Oct) will bring a more definitive reduction below the Active level. MOSWOC REFM is currently matching observations, and the declining trend shown is accepted.