Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-03T00:28:29

GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux is mainly High after the recent notable CME and coronal hole enhancements. With no further enhancements currently expected, High levels are expected to persist for much of the period, with only a chance of falling to Moderate or Background for brief periods, most likely at the minimum of the diurnal cycle or during any further geomagnetic storming that occurs. Confidence for this persistence does decline a little later in the period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to persist at the Active level, with a gradually rising trend.  The MOSWOC REFM model supports this,  although the model is currently overestimating the fluence and is considered to be considerably overestimating the forecast peak fluence. Conversely 27-day recurrence is not useful due to the very different solar wind environment on this rotation.