MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-10T00:11:06
GOES high energy (>2MeV) electron flux finally reached High levels following the recent solar wind enhancements. A peak of 1420 pfu was recorded at 09/1715 UTC during the diurnal maximum. This pattern is expected to persist in the coming days; however, the peak flux remains highly uncertain, as a weakening of the solar winds may lead to lower electron flux intensities.
The associated 24 hr fluence is forecast to rise as a result, bringing a chance of Active fluence by the end of the period. This is supported by MOSWOC REFM, although this maybe overestimating the likely rise.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-09-10T00:11:06 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |