MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-15T00:24:42
GOES high energy (>2MeV) electron flux has been at moderate levels, rising to high in the diurnal cycle for the past few days due to the fast winds from likely CH71. This pattern is likely to persist over the coming days although with perhaps a lower peak in electron flux during the coming afternoons as the charging from the recent fast winds ease.
The associated fluence is currently above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but on a steadily declining trend. Electron fluence may remain Active at the start of day 1 (15 Aug) but likely dropping below before the end of the day. This trend is supported by MOSWOC REFM forecast data, although is perhaps a little too slow in the downward trend in electron fluence. Meanwhile, recurrence is not to be trusted, with the previous rotation seeing much stronger solar winds than this time around.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-08-15T00:24:42 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |