Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-08T00:10:49

High-energy electron flux at GEO remains at moderate to background levels. However the expected CME and HSS influences are likely to keep flux levels suppressed through much of this period. An increase to diurnally high levels is possible on Day 4 (11 Aug), based on persistence, but this is low confidence with timing differences in the HSS this rotation, and also likely CME effects this time around.

The 24 hour integrated fluence is expected to stay below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for much of this period, but with a slight chance of exceeding on Day 4. MOSWOC REFM's current forecast of a largely flat trend through to Day 3 (10 Aug) is accepted.