Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-09T00:12:03

The diurnal oscillation in high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) has proven stable in magnitude over the past 72 hours or so, but showed some attenuation at GEO through the past 24 hours as the effects of increasing geomagnetic activity and solar wind pressure reduced counts slightly. Confidence in electron belt behaviour over the current UTC weekend is relatively low, with counts depending on the (thus far) erratic onset of CH69's fast wind, and also the unknown quantity of an inbound 05 August CME.

The main uncertainty is the degree to which flux recovers at GEO into the new UTC week, with Active 24-hour fluence considered unlikely at GEO before this point. Recurrence suggests a rising but sub-Active trend, however MOSWOC REFM maintains fluence at or below current observed levels for its entire 72-hour range. The intervention of a CME will render both less useful in the current forecast, however, with perhaps an overall Chance of rising above Active fluence proffered into the new UTC working week.