MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-07T00:12:03
High-energy electron flux at GEO remains mostly at Moderate levels, with a chance of reaching diurnally high flux levels in the coming days. However, a potential glancing CME impact early Day 1 (07 Aug) may affect this trend. Further CME and high-speed stream HSS influences are expected later in the period and are likely to return flux levels to background from late Day 2 (08 Aug) onward.
MOSWOC REFM's current forecast of a largely flat trend is accepted. However, there is a Slight Chance of this rising before the flux likely returns to background levels later in the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-08-07T00:12:03 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |