MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-01T00:12:25
High energy electron flux at GEO is expected to be generally Background to Moderate. There is a chance that the Electron flux will increase slightly through the period as the Van Allen belt relaxes and expands back towards GEO after any enhancement from the high speed stream/s of CH67/- wanes. High levels likely to be brief, and occurring at diurnal maximum.
The corresponding electron fluence currently show a steady rising trend, although should remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold.
MOSWOC REFM output looks to be providing good guidance and supports fluence levels staying below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-08-01T00:12:25 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |