Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-09T00:11:42

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has been mainly Moderate in the last 24 hours, likely due to an ongoing connection to CH62/- helping to suppress the electron belts. Electron flux levels are expected to remain predominantly within the moderate range, with occasional peaks perhaps reaching high levels—most likely during the typical diurnal increase. As the influence of CH62/- gradually wanes in the coming days, electron flux levels may rise more consistently, however confidence in this outcome remains low. Regardless, a connection to CH63/+ expected from later Day 3 (11 July) or more likely Day 4 (12 July) will likely suppress the electron belts again.  

Electron fluence is below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) and is expected to remain below this level throughout the forecast period, on a flat or slightly rising trend. Forecast confidence decreases around Days 2 and 3 due to possible short-term flux increases, which is reflected in the forecast probabilities. MOSWOC REFMs forecast is currently verifying poorly, with Recurrence perhaps offering a more reliable guide.