Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-13T00:29:21

The greater than 2MeV electron flux observed at GEO by GOES19 has been at mostly moderate levels. Over the next two days, a combination of HSS and residual CME effects are likely to keep electron flux suppressed at GEO. However, the HSS from CH57/+, the largest southern hemisphere coronal hole, is likely to arrive late today or early tomorrow (13th or 14th Jun). Winds speeds will probably temporarily increases to become strong, which could cause an increase in electron flux below GEO. As the HSS wanes through Day 3 (15 Jun), an increase in high energy electron flux is then possible, with an increasing potential for the electron flux to reach high levels from Day 3.

Electron fluence is expected to stay below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during Days 1-3 (12-14 Jun), as indicated by MOSWOC REFM. An increase is possible on Day 3, with a chance of Active levels being reached later in the day and also through Day 4 (16th Jun).