Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-06T00:22:12

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux observed at GEO by GOES19 has been suppressed at times over recent days due to various solar wind enhancements but has recently persisted at predominantly High levels. Little change is expected until any enhanced geomagnetic activity occurs, most likely from a potential CME arrival through today (6th June), but also from possible coronal hole high speed stream influence. Once the enhanced geomagnetic activity subsides later in the period the previously subdued high energy electrons are likely to re-charge the Van Allen belts. Therefore High electron flux is expected at first and then again later in the period.

Fluence levels are currently very close to the Active threshold, but are expected to rise above the threshold today. Fluence levels are likely to decline below the Active threshold after the potential CME arrival and/or the solar wind enhancement from a coronal hole feature, either late today or early tomorrow. Later in the period a rising trend in the fluence is expected, therefore inline with the MOSWOC REFM forecast which is considered to be giving reasonable guidance.