Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-07T00:13:14

The greater than 2MeV electron flux observed at GEO by GOES19 has shown sharp increases over the past 24 hours, indicating the near-Earth environment below GEO is highly populated with electrons. The electron flux is expected to remain Moderate to High through much of the period, perhaps decreasing Background to Moderate levels temporarily with any slight geomagnetic activity enhancement today or through the coming UTC night and also later in the period. The corresponding fluence is expected to remain above Active today for much of the period, perhaps declining below Active through day 4 (10th June).

The MOSWOC REFM model is currently underestimating the fluence, expecting it to be below Active, and also shows an initial declining trend. Therefore the REFM model is considered to be offering poor guidance. With an initial increasing or steady trend preferred, and then a gradual declining trend thereafter.