Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-30T00:13:20

Electron flux is currently close to breaching the High threshold due to the response to the ongoing fast wind enhancement associated with CH52/-. High energy electron flux at GEO is expected to quickly reach High levels today (30 May) and then remain at High levels throughout most of the period, only possibly temporarily decreasing to Moderate levels through dips in the the diurnal cycle today and tomorrow (30 and 31 May).

Electron fluence is currently below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux) with an increasing trend. This trend is expected to continue through today, with the Active threshold expected to be breached either late today or more likely tomorrow. Therefore the MOSWOC REFM model is considered to be giving good overall guidance, but a slightly slowly increasing trend, closer to persistence, is preferred.