Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-12T00:16:16

High energy electrons have yet to reach a stable oscillation in the wake of CH46/- and now perhaps CH47/+, with recent geomagnetic activity likely to further delay any appreciable rise at GEO. While Active 24-hour electron fluence is not considered likely given persistence, the fact that a CME featured in the relevant time window on last rotation renders this lower confidence, and it is possible that the Van Allen belts may remain significantly populated (after the past working week) but inside GEO and GOES19's vision. MOSWOC REFM shows a level tendency through the period, which is possible but with the above caveat lowering confidence in this evolution.

All in, a gradually rising Slight Chance should give way to a plateauing Chance of Active 24-hour fluence, with any fast wind from CH49/- perhaps then further attenuating GEO counts during day four, Thursday 15 May.