Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-06T00:12:50

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES19 is showing a response to the recent CH44/- fast wind enhancement, with long periods of High flux in the past 24 hours. With no further notable geomagnetic enhancements perhaps likely, mainly High flux may persist, albeit with a decreasing confidence by the end of the period, especially should CH46 connect with Earth on day 4.

The associated 24-hour fluence is currently above the Active threshold and is likely to remain at a similar level. Active fluence is expected through the period, with confidence falling away during days 3 and 4. MOSWOC REFM's forecast has proven too over-exuberant and something nearer persistence is preferred, i.e. now tracking near (but above) Active, as opposed to Very Active.