Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-28T00:12:03

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at moderate to high levels during the last 24 hours. The recent HSS likely increased electron flux at altitudes below GEO, however the potential for further HSS influence through this period means that the Van Allen belts are likely to stay somewhat compressed unless wind speeds drop significantly. A further increase in electron flux is therefore possible but unlikely in the next couple of days. 

The 24 hour fluence is most likely to stay below Active (1e8 integrated pfu), but with just a slight chance of exceeding during this period. Any significant response in fluence is more likely to occur after the next HSS from CH42/-, therefore after the end of this period. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting below Active through this period, which reflects the most likely outcome.