Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-11T00:13:41

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed at GEO has been periodically High in response to the now waning fast wind from CH31/-.

In the immediate term, a continuation of 24-hour Active integrated electron fluence is Expected, with geomagnetic activity from CH31/- now relatively less likely to interrupt this at GEO. Given the absence of any markers for an imminent entry into CH29/- at the time of writing (e.g. ACE EPAM LEMS enhancement), Active fluence is considered Likely to survive into the UTC day of 11 April. Through that 24-hour period, the succeeding CH29/- should then manifest at Earth, bringing a lower Chance of Active fluence seeing out Day 1 (11 Apr) and indeed the remainder of the four-day period.

CH29's span of the disc should mean it should last through into the new UTC working week, although the chances of GEO electrons recovering should increase as initial geomagnetic activity wanes.