Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-03T00:18:18

High energy electron flux l(greater than 2MeV) levels have been at moderate to background levels over the past 24 hours. Overall little change is expected, although there is a slight chance of the flux diurnally reaching High levels during day 4 (6th) following the expected arrival of a HSS from CH27. The connection to CH27 is likely to occur either late day 2 (4th Apr) or early day 3 (5th).

The associated electron fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold and is expected to remain below the threshold through the forecast period. Therefore the MOSWOC REFM model is through to be giving reasonable guidance, despite the model currently over-estimating the fluence levels.