Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-27T13:17:24

GOES16 High energy (>2MeV) Electron flux has been at background to moderate levels. With a chance of enhanced geomagnetic activity due to the HSS from CH25+ at the start of the period, the Van Allen belt is likely to be suppressed away from GEO and electron flux is therefore expected to remain at background to moderate levels for the first couple of days. However, as the geomagnetic activity wanes on days 3 and 4 (29 and 30 Mar), the charged electron belts should expand back towards GEO, with a probable significant rise in the flux of high energy electrons. 

Electron (1e8 integrated pfu) fluence should remain below the Active threshold throughout the period. MOSWOC REFM output is indicating a chance that electron fluence could rise above the Active threshold towards the end of the period and is considered reasonable guidance with moderate confidence.