Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-19T00:33:14

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is likely to reach moderate levels through the diurnal cycle at first, and perhaps more generally later in the period, once any increased geomagnetic activity from anticipated coronal hole influences begin subsiding. However, timings for the onset of any coronal hole high speed stream from later day 1 (19th), and its strength, are low confidence at this stage, due to the differing size and locations of CH11 and CH13 this rotation. 

Associated electron fluence is expected to remain below the active threshold, but is likely to see a more significant rising trend later in the period.