MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-17T00:34:30
GOES‑19 high‑energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is expected to be at mostly Background to Moderate levels initially, with a likelihood of reaching a diurnal High peak on Days 1 and 2 (17-18 Mar). However, confidence lowers from Day 3 (19 Mar) due to the anticipated arrival of the 16 Mar CME, which may suppress electrons at GEO.
The associated 24hr electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux) initially, but with a likely rising trend through Days 1 and 2 (17-18 Mar), with an increasing likelihood of breaching the Active threshold. Lower confidence from Day 3 (19 Mar) due to likely CME arrival. MOSWOC REFM forecast and recurrence both indicating fluence levels above the Active threshold Active into Days 1 and 2 (17-18 Mar), and this is considered generally good guidance, but with lower confidence Days 3 and 4 (19-20 Mar) due to likely CME arrival.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-03-17T00:34:30 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |