Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-14T00:09:07

GOES‑19 high‑energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is expected to be at mostly Background to Moderate levels, with a chance of diurnal High peaks through to Day 2 (15 Mar), as the ongoing connection to the high‑speed stream from CH31/+ brings an associated increase in solar wind pressure. Through Days 3 and 4 (16 and 17 Mar) as the HSS starts to decline, so flux levels are likely to increase, with an increasing likelihood of reaching High levels.

The associated 24 hr electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux) initially, before a likely rising trend later in the period. Observed values are currently very close to recurrence and below MOSWOC REFM expectations, with both forecasts showing an initial gradual decline then an increase toward, or exceeding Active, later in the period, which is considered good guidance.