Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-12T13:05:30

GOES‑19 high‑energy (>2 MeV) electron flux remains moderate to high, with recent Elevated solar‑winds having contributed to enhanced charging of the outer (electron) Van Allen Belt. As these winds continue to slowly ease in the near term, it is likely that electron flux will reach high values through Day 1 (12 Mar) during the diurnal maximum. Flux may then reduce to more consistent Moderate levels through Day 2 or 3 (13-14 Mar) with the anticipated connection to the next high‑speed stream from CH31/+ and the associated increase in solar wind pressure.

The associated 24‑hour electron fluence has risen over the past 24 hours, currently a little below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). There is a chance that Active electron fluence may be achieved on Days 1 and Day 2 (12/13 Mar) before the anticipated high‑speed stream from CH31/+ connects and reduces electron counts during the second half of the period. Observed values are currently much higher than MOSWOC REFM and recurrence and are most likely to remain above both elements through the period, and therefore confidence in the fluence forecast is generally low.