MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-11T00:31:07
GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) electron flux has been at mostly moderate levels in the last 24 hours, briefly reaching high at the diurnal maximum. Recent fast winds caused some charging of the outer (electron) Van Allen Belt below GEO, however now the solar wind pressure has eased, the response so far at GEO has been fairly muted. Peak flux for this phase has now likely to have been achieved, with a declining risk of diurnal high values being reached through the period.
The associated 24 hr electron fluence is most likely to stay below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting a below Active trend through the next three days, which is considered good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-03-11T00:31:07 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |