Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-10T00:26:23

GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) electron flux has been at mostly moderate levels in the last 24 hours, briefly reaching high at the diurnal maximum. Recent fast winds may have caused some charging of the outer (electron) Van Allen Belt below GEO, however now the solar wind pressure has started to ease the response so far at GEO has been fairly minimal. Whilst an increase in flux during Day 1 (10 Mar) in response to the recent fast wind cannot be ruled out, it is looking less likely.

The associated 24 hr electron fluence is most likely to stay below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, although a slight rising trend remains possible. There is a slight chance of reaching Active during this period. This is low confidence, and MOSWOC REFM is now forecasting a below Active trend through the next three days, having been over-estimating fluence values until recently.