Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-09T00:26:20

GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) electron flux increased from Moderate to High levels. Recent fast winds have likely connected sufficiently to charge the outer (electron) Van Allen Belt at lower orbits, however it remains uncertain how this will correspond to observed flux at GEO as solar wind pressure eases. This is expected to occur through the coming 24 hours, with an increasing likelihood for periods of High flux to be observed, mainly at diurnal maximum. 

The associated 24 hr electron fluence is also expected to see a rising trend, with a chance of reaching Active on day 1 (09 Mar) becoming likely from day 2 (10 March). This is low confidence, however with current MOSWOC REFM potentially over-estimating the forecast values.