Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-08T00:21:55

GOES19 high-energy (>2MeV) electron flux is expected to start at Background to Moderate levels then perhaps from late Day 1 (08 Mar), but more likely through Day 2 (09 Mar), high energy electron flux levels are expected to increase to reach Moderate to High levels, as the HSS from CH29 begins to decline.

The associated 24 hr electron fluence is expected remaining below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux), but with a rising trend in this guidance period. MOSWOC REFM appears to be providing sensible guidance for the observed electron fluence, with an increase indicated on later on Day 1 (08 Mar) which may be too early by around 24 hours.