MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-07T00:43:15
GOES19 high-energy (>2MeV) electron flux is expected to persist at Background to Moderate levels at first. From late Day 2 (08 Mar) but more likely through Day 3 (09 Mar) energy electron flux levels are expected to increase Moderate to High, following the HSS from CH29.
The associated 24 fluence is now expected to remain below the Active threshold, but with a rising trend likely Days 2-4 (08-10 Mar). MOSWOC REFM is currently providing reasonable guidance for the observed electron fluence, but the forecast overall declining trend is considered unlikely.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-03-07T00:43:15 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 1% |