Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-05T12:01:33

GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) Electron flux has persisted at Moderate to Background, after the recent fast wind enhancement. As the solar wind eases to Background levels, an increasing trend in the observed flux is possible on days 1-2 (05-06 Mar), with a chance for periods of High flux, and a slight chance of becoming more persistently High. This is likely to be short lived, however, with the onset of the fast winds of CH29 through days 3-4 (07-08 Mar) likely to bring a further suppression in the observed flux for a time. Any recovery is likely to be either later on day 4 (08 Mar) or beyond this period.

The associated 24 fluence is now expected to remain below the Active threshold, but with a rising trend likely days 1-2 (05-06 Mar).  MOSWOC REFM is currently providing poor guidance for the current observed electron fluence, and suggests an overall declining trend in the next couple of days.