Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-05T00:30:07

GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) Electron flux has persisted at Moderate to Background, after the recent fast wind enhancement. As this eases, an increasing trend in the observed flux is possible on days 1-2 (05-06 Mar), with a chance for periods of High flux, and a slight chance of becoming more persistently High. This is likely to be short lived, however, with the onset of the fast winds of CH29 through days 3-4 (07-08 Mar) likely to bring a further suppression in the observed flux for a time. Any recovery is likely to be either later on day 4 (08 Mar) or beyond this period.

The associated 24 fluence is now expected to remain below the Active threshold, but with a rising trend likely days 1-2 (05-06 Mar) a slight chance of reaching this level is maintained.  MOSWOC REFM is currently providing poor guidance for the current observed electron fluence, and this would suggest an overall declining trend.