Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-03T00:20:18

High energy electrons showed a resurgence through the middle of the UTC day of 02 March. This is likely to be the result of a charged outer Van Allen belt finally fully relaxing outward to encompass GEO in the wake of CH26 last UTC week. This has occurred to such a degree that there is now also perhaps a Slight Chance of Very Active fluence developing for a time, with the forecast minor fast wind enhancements from CH24 and CH27 not materialising as of the time of writing.

The next bout of geomagnetic activity may now not arrive until the end of the current UTC working week, and the Expected Active electron fluence may consequently survive for much of the period. MOSWOC REFM is not felt to be offering useful guidance at present and in light of recent developments, given the dissimilarity of the current disc to last pass in terms of coronal hole configurations. Instead, a continuation of the current conditions is perhaps more likely, given the slow regime that should prevail for much of the period.