Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-02T00:10:35

GOES-19 High energy (>2MeV) electron flux has been predominately High, with only a brief drop out to Background observed at diurnal minimum. This observed flux is showing a gradual declining trend, which is expected to continue even in absence of any geomagnetic activity, but remaining mostly High. Should any connection to the western small coronal holes occur, then a more rapid and persistent drop out to Background could occur, however this is low confidence. This would be mot likely to occur within the first 36 hours of the forecast period. 

The associated 24-hour fluence has been persistently Active (>1e8 integrated pfu), but is expected to see an erratic decline, potentially accelerated should any fast wind enhancement be observed before midweek UTC. Below-Active fluence is perhaps more likely than not after midweek UTC, however this aspect of the forecast is low confidence. MOSWOC REFM is currently underestimating the observed fluence, suggesting that values should already be falling below Active, however it does support the declining trend that is expected.