Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-28T00:08:51

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has persisted at predominantly High levels. No significant geomagnetic activity is forecast, with just a slight chance of a G1/Minor geomagnetic storm on Day 2 (01 Mar) from a possible glancing CME to potentially reduce electron counts. Otherwise, lingering HSS influence from CH26 will gradually decline to background, with further weak coronal hole influence possible into Day 3 (02 Mar). An overall  reducing trend seems probable through the period  as a whole but with low confidence.

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently Active (1e8 integrated pfu), and is expected to persist at this level through at least the first half of the forecast period, perhaps reducing through Days 3-4 (02-03 Mar). MOSWOC REFM suggests the potential for fluence to decline below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) during Day 2 (01 Mar) but this is currently considered unlikely unless any Minor geomagnetic storm activity occurs.