Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-25T00:12:51

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has persisted High with peak values exceeding 10000pfu. With the ongoing fast winds expected to gradual ease, and no further activity expected until at least day 4, and most likely beyond this period, these values are expected to continue. Day 1-2 (25-26 Feb) may also values rise further before an erratic decline is likely day 3 onward.

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently Active (1e8 integrated pfu), and expected to persist at this level for the period, as supported by MOSWOC REFM and 27-day recurrence. While MOSWOC REFM suggests the potential for fluence to peak near Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu), there is only a slight chance of exceeding this level.