MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-24T00:31:31
GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is currently at moderate to high levels. Flux levels are likely to continue to reach high levels at times during Day 1 (24 Feb), with a gradual increase expected through the period as solar wind pressure diminishes with the weakening of the fast wind stream.
The associated 24-hour fluence is above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) where it is likely to remain through much of the period. This scenario is represented by MOSWOC REFM which is overall giving good guidance, although the large rise in fluence levels to very high levels towards the end of the period is likely overdone.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-02-24T00:31:31 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 80% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 80% | 5% |