MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-23T00:31:58
GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has decreased to mostly background–moderate levels following the recent connection to fast solar wind from CH26/-. Flux levels are expected to remain suppressed through most of Day 1 (23 Feb). A gradual increase is likely from Day 2 (24 Feb) as solar wind pressure diminishes with the weakening of the fast wind stream.
The associated 24-hour fluence is below the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) where it is likely to remain through Day 1 (23 Feb). Fluence may start to rise again through Day 2 ( 24 Feb), with Active fluence becoming likely by Day 3 (25 Feb). This scenario is represented by MOSWOC REFM, which shows a rise in predicted fluence levels towards the end of the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-02-23T00:31:58 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 1% |