MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-22T00:16:07
GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) electron flux was at predominantly Moderate, peaking at 801pfu at 21/2135 UTC. The associated 24-hour fluence fell from Active (above 1e8 integrated pfu) to below Active on a declining trend
GOES19 high-energy electron flux (>2MeV) is expected to be mainly Moderate, perhaps increasing to High at the diurnal maximum through the period. Confidence is unusually low in the 24 hour fluence forecast however there is a chance that it will increase above the Active (>1e8 integrated pfu) threshold at times through the period, perhaps more likely on days 1 and 2 (22 and 23 Feb).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-02-22T00:16:07 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |