Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-20T12:14:33

GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) electron flux has been predominantly Moderate to High, as solar winds ease after the recent fast wind onset, dropping to Moderate during diurnal minimum. Ongoing Moderate to High flux is expected to gradually ease through the period, with an increasing duration for periods of Low flux at diurnal minimum.

As a consequence, the associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain High initially but with lowering confidence due to the uncertainty of how quickly the ongoing high flux declines. MOSWOC REFM is currently suggesting a declining trend day 1 (19 Feb), before rising again later in the period, however this is currently deemed less likely.