Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-19T12:01:02

GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) electron flux has been predominantly Moderate to High, as solar winds eased after the recent fast wind onset, only dropping to Moderate during diurnal minimum. There is still the potential for a weak CME glance to occur on day 1 (19 Feb), which may bring a temporary drop out in the observed flux, however this is low confidence. Otherwise, ongoing Moderate to High flux is expected to gradually ease through the period, with an increasing duration for periods of Low flux at diurnal minimum.

As a consequence, the associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain High initially but with lowering confidence due to the uncertainty of how quickly the ongoing high flux declines, along with any CME arrival on day 1 (19 Feb). MOSWOC REFM is currently suggesting a declining trend day 1 (19 Feb), before rising again later in the period, however this is not expected.