Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-18T00:50:02

GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) electron flux was background during the morning of the 17 Feb, but became high for a time during the afternoon, before dropping to moderate levels into the UTC evening. As solar winds ease, any charging of the Van Allen belt is expected to expand outward, increasingly affecting GEO and bringing more prolonged periods of High flux. However, the potential CME arrival later on 18 Feb may also bring a further suppression, delaying the main rise until later in the period.

As a consequence, the associated 24 hour fluence is expected to see an increasing trend, but now has a lower confidence of reaching the Active fluence level (1e8 integrated pfu), with a chance of occurring on Day 1 (18 Feb) but most likely occurring later in the period Day 2-4 (19-21 Feb). MOSWOC REFM is showing a rising trend, however this is still over estimating the current observed fluence, and also doesn't take account of any CME arrival.