Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-17T00:31:05

GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) electron flux increased from Background to Moderate to High over the past 24 hours. Current fast connection has likely charged the Van Allen Belts, which then may become  compressed at lower orbits, below GEO. As solar wind pressure eases later day 1 and during day 2 (17-18 Feb), this flux is expected to expand out to GEO, likely becoming persistently High during day 2 (18 Feb).

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to slowly increase to become Active from day 2 (18 Feb). This increasing trend is supported by MOSWOC REFM, however this is currently overestimating current values, along with the likely speed and magnitude of the expected rise.