Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-16T00:34:56

GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) electron flux was predominantly moderate over the past 24 hours. Large CH24/+ has become geo-effective and temporarily suppressed electron flux. However, as the high-speed stream begins to wane in the coming days, a response in electron flux is anticipated, similar to what was observed with the same feature on the last rotation (in January). Mainly high electron flux levels were recorded then and likely to happen in a similar manner from Day 2 (17 Feb) onwards.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to persist below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold initially, although with an increasing chance of exceeding this level through Day 2 (17 Feb), then likely becoming Active from Day 3 (18 Feb). The latest MOSWOC REFM forecast is indicating fluence to exceed the Active threshold on Day 1 (16 Feb), however this is considered too early.