Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-15T00:33:29

GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) electron flux was predominantly moderate over the past 24 hours. The upcoming HSS from CH24 is most likely to arrive on Day 1 (15 Feb), although with low confidence in timing. This could be sufficient to drive electron flux increase in the radiation belts, but any significant response is unlikely to occur until the high speed stream wanes late in the period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to persist below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, although with a rising slight chance through Day 3 and Day 4 (17-18 Feb) as the HSS from CH24 starts to wane. The latest MOSWOC REFM is also forecasting for fluence to remain below the Active level through the period, but on a rising trend, which is considered reasonable guidance.