Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-13T12:42:44

GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) electron flux was predominantly moderate over the past 24 hours, but briefly reached high levels between 12/1510-1725 UTC as the HSS from CH22 waned. This was a weak feature and is not expected to have been sufficient for notable electron enhancement in the radiation belts, so any further increase is unlikely in the short term. The upcoming HSS from CH24 is most likely to arrive on Day 3 (15 Feb), although with low confidence in timing. This could be sufficient to drive electron flux increase in the radiation belts, but any significant response is unlikely to occur until after the end of this period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to persist below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, although perhaps rising a little later on Day 4 (16 Feb) as the HSS from CH24 starts to wane. The latest MOSWOC REFM is also forecasting for fluence to remain below the Active level through the next three days, which is considered reasonable guidance.